Predicting This Year’s Academy Awards
Forecasting the 97th Academy Awards is no small feat. Unlike the previous year when Oppenheimer was expected to sweep the awards, this year’s ceremony offers no such clear path. The frontrunners have shifted repeatedly due to social media controversies and political dynamics, making this one of the most uncertain award seasons in recent history. Nonetheless, the unpredictability adds a layer of excitement, as we eagerly await the outcomes in various major categories. Without further ado, here are our predictions, categorized into Will Wins (our predicted winners), Could Wins (the potential surprise victors), and Should Wins (who we believe deserve the accolade).
BEST PICTURE
Nominees:
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- I’m Still Here
- Nickel Boys
- The Substance
- Wicked
This category is the evening’s biggest cliffhanger, as it should be. Unlike last year, where Oppenheimer was a shoo-in, this year’s Best Picture race remains wide open. Initially, it seemed like a two-way contest between Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez and Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist. Both films tied at the Golden Globes, with Emilia Pérez slightly ahead due to its 13 Oscar nominations and its thematic defiance against figures like Donald Trump. However, a social media scandal diminished Emilia Pérez‘s prospects, leaving the race open for Conclave and Anora. Ultimately, while The Brutalist and Conclave remain strong contenders, we’re predicting Anora will take the top prize. Sean Baker’s film recently clinched the Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA awards, making it the likely winner. Who Will Win: Anora Who Could Win: Conclave Who Should Win: The Brutalist
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees:
- Sean Baker – Anora
- Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
- James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
- Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
- Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
While we wish Coralie Fargeat could win for The Substance, this category appears to be a duel between Brady Corbet and Sean Baker. Although Emilia Pérez has lost traction, Jacques Audiard was once a contender. Corbet’s work on The Brutalist is undeniably impressive, but Baker’s consistent excellence makes him the favorite. Notably, for the first time since 1997, all nominees are first-timers in this category. Who Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora Who Could Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist Who Should Win: Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
BEST ACTOR
Nominees:
- Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
- Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
The Best Actor category seems to be a face-off between Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet. Brody has dominated the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTAs, but Chalamet’s surprising SAG win has shifted the momentum. While The Brutalist is a more deserving film, the Academy’s affinity for biopics, like A Complete Unknown, could favor Chalamet. If he wins, he’ll become the youngest winner in this category, breaking Brody’s record. Who Will Win: Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown Who Could Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist Who Should Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:
- Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
- Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
- Mikey Madison – Anora
- Demi Moore – The Substance
- Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
This category seems to be leaning towards Demi Moore for her riveting performance in The Substance. Despite the Academy’s usual reluctance to honor horror films, Moore’s portrayal of Elizabeth Sparkle has earned her numerous awards, including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAGs. As much as we would love to see Karla Sofía Gascón make history, it seems Demi Moore’s night. Who Will Win: Demi Moore – The Substance Who Could Win: Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here Who Should Win: Demi Moore – The Substance
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
- Yura Borisov – Anora
- Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
- Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
This category is a clear win for Kieran Culkin, whose role as Benji in A Real Pain has captured all precursor awards. While Guy Pearce delivered a standout performance in The Brutalist, Culkin seems unbeatable. Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain Who Could Win: Guy Pearce – The Brutalist Who Should Win: Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:
- Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande – Wicked
- Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
- Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
Despite the controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez, Zoe Saldaña remains the frontrunner for her role as a singing, dancing lawyer. While Isabella Rossellini’s brief but impactful performance in Conclave is noteworthy, Saldaña’s consistent wins at major awards make her the likely victor. Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez Who Could Win: Isabella Rossellini – Conclave Who Should Win: Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
- Anora (Sean Baker)
- The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
- A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
- September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David)
- The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)
This category is fiercely contested. While Anora is likely to win, The Substance also deserves recognition for its creativity and depth. A Real Pain could be a dark horse, but Anora seems favored by the Academy. Who Will Win: Anora Who Could Win: The Substance Who Should Win: The Substance
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
- A Complete Unknown (James Mangold and Jay Cocks)
- Conclave (Peter Straughan)
- Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi)
- Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes)
- Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)
Conclave is the likely winner, skillfully adapted from Robert Harris’s novel by Peter Straughan. Although Nickel Boys and Emilia Pérez are strong contenders, Conclave seems to have the edge. Who Will Win: Conclave Who Could Win: Nickel Boys Who Should Win: Conclave
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Nominees:
- I’m Still Here (Brazil)
- The Girl With The Needle (Denmark)
- Emilia Pérez (France)
- The Seed Of The Sacred Fig (Germany)
- Flow (Latvia)
Despite the controversy, Emilia Pérez is expected to win this category. However, I’m Still Here could pull off an upset. Our personal favorite is The Seed of the Sacred Fig, which offers a moving narrative. Who Will Win: Emilia Pérez Who Could Win: I’m Still Here Who Should Win: The Seed of the Sacred Fig
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees:
- Black Box Diaries
- No Other Land
- Porcelain War
- Soundtrack To A Coup D’Etat
- Sugarcane
There is no clear frontrunner in this category, but Porcelain War and No Other Land are strong contenders. Sugarcane, however, is our choice for its impactful storytelling. Who Will Win: Porcelain War Who Could Win: No Other Land Who Should Win: Sugarcane
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Nominees:
- Flow
- Inside Out 2
- Memoir Of A Snail
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- The Wild Robot
The Wild Robot is the likely winner, but Flow is a beautiful, heartfelt tale that deserves the accolade. Who Will Win: The Wild Robot Who Could Win: Flow Who Should Win: Flow
97th Oscar Ceremony
For the remaining categories, we offer a brief overview with our predictions for who will take home the trophies. Join us on Monday morning for full coverage of the ceremony.
Best Cinematography
- Will Win: The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
- Should Win: Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)
Best Film Editing
- Will Win: Conclave (Nick Emerson)
- Should Win: Anora (Sean Baker)
Best Production Design
- Will Win: Wicked (Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales)
- Should Win: The Brutalist (Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia)
Best Visual Effects
- Will Win: Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer)
- Should Win: Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer)
Best Sound
- Will Win: Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill)
- Should Win: Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill)
Best Original Score
- Will Win: The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
- Should Win: Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Best Original Song
- Will Win: ‘El Mal’ from Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard, Clément Ducol, Camille) or ‘Mi Camino’ from Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol, Camille)
- Should Win: ‘El Mal’ from Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard, Clément Ducol, Camille)
Best Costume Design
- Will Win: Wicked (Paul Tazewell)
- Should Win: Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Best Make-up & Hairstyling
- Will Win: The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, Marilyne Scarselli)
- Should Win: The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, Marilyne Scarselli)
Best Animated Short
- Will Win: Wander to Wonder (Nina Gantz, Stienette Bosklopper)
- Should Win: Magic Candies (Daisuke Nishio, Takashi Washio)
Best Live Action Short
- Will Win: Anuja (Adam J. Graves, Suchitra Mattai)
- Should Win: I’m Not a Robot (Victoria Warmerdam, Trent)
Best Documentary Short
- Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra, Maya Gnyp)
- Should Win: I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra, Maya Gnyp)
The 97th Oscars take place on Sunday, March 2nd (early Monday morning in Europe). Stay tuned to Euronews Culture for comprehensive coverage of the ceremony.
