AI Study Reveals Extensive Wildfire Risks Across U.S. Properties
An innovative study powered by artificial intelligence from ZestyAI has revealed that $2.15 trillion worth of residential property in the United States is at high risk of wildfire damage. The comprehensive analysis evaluated 126 million properties nationwide, uncovering that 4.3 million homes are significantly exposed to wildfire threats, extending far beyond areas traditionally deemed high-risk.
The AI models developed by ZestyAI, trained with data from over 2,000 past wildfires, offer a property-level risk assessment by incorporating satellite and aerial imagery, topographical data, and specific characteristics of each structure. California tops the list with $1.16 trillion worth of property at risk, but other states such as Colorado ($190.5 billion), Utah ($100.3 billion), and North Carolina ($71.2 billion) also face substantial threats.
While wildfires have predominantly ravaged the Western U.S., the danger is escalating in states like North Carolina, where 4.6% of homes are at high risk, Kentucky (2.9%), Tennessee (2.3%), and even South Dakota (11%).
The expansion of the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI)—where residential and business developments encroach upon fire-prone areas—coupled with worsening climate conditions, is increasingly driving up insurance costs and availability concerns. Currently, one in eight U.S. homeowners lacks sufficient insurance coverage, with expectations for this figure to rise.
According to Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI, “Wildfires are posing unprecedented threats to properties, with hundreds of billions of dollars in exposure even in regions not traditionally linked with fire risk. However, too many homeowners find themselves inadequately insured as these disasters become more frequent and severe.”
Toth further explains that insurers traditionally depend on broad, regional models neglecting unique property traits, resulting in denial of coverage even for homeowners with much lower actual risk than their neighbors. “AI-driven risk analytics are transforming how insurers evaluate wildfire risks, providing detailed, property-specific insights that facilitate smarter underwriting decisions. This approach helps maintain available coverage in high-risk zones and acknowledges homeowners who undertake mitigation efforts. Last year, our models enabled insurers to extend coverage to 511,000 properties previously struggling with outdated risk assessments. By 2025, we anticipate reaching a million, ensuring responsible homeowners in high-risk areas can protect their property when disasters occur.”
